Journal of Insurance Regulation

COVID-19 and Credit Watch List as an Economic Indicator

Goebel, Joseph
Kemper, Kris
Gatzlaff, Kevin M.

First published: 31 January 2023 | https://doi.org/10.52227/26274.2022

Abstract

A global pandemic interrupted a decade-long US expansionary cycle. While governments intervened in an attempt to manage a health crisis, the economy stalled, and equity markets crashed. However, equity markets quickly recovered and moved to positive territory a few months later. We examine the actions of Credit Rating Agencies (CRAs) and the signals that are sent through S&P Watch List activity. After creating a significant indicator based on Credit Watch activity, reflecting private firm information, we find that the swift recovery may have been foreseeable for non-insurance firms. The indicator provides less potential predictive power for insurance firms, either because the greater regulatory activity surrounding insurance firms yields less private information to be discovered by CRAs, or possibly because the insurance industry is more resilient to economic shock than other sectors of the economy.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.52227/26274.2022

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